This week, the Department of Homeland Security dropped another of its color-coded terrorism advisories, intended for the holiday season and a bit of ass covering. But like so many of its previous advisories it says nothing. It’s more of a press release that reminds the public that it’s still there.
The United States remains in a heightened threat environment. Lone offenders and small groups motivated by a range of ideological beliefs and/or personal grievances continue to pose a persistent and lethal threat to the Homeland. Domestic actors and foreign terrorist organizations continue to maintain a visible presence online in attempts to motivate supporters to conduct attacks in the homeland. Threat actors have recently mobilized to violence, citing factors such as reactions to current events and adherence to violent extremist ideologies. In the coming months, threat actors could exploit several upcoming events to justify or commit acts of violence, including certifications related to the midterm elections, the holiday season and associated large gatherings, the marking of two years since the breach of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, and potential sociopolitical developments connected to ideological beliefs or personal hostility. Targets of potential violence include public gatherings, faith-based institutions, the LGBTQI+ community, schools, racial and religious minorities, government facilities and personnel, U.S. critical infrastructure, the media, and perceived ideological opponents.
The advisory covers all bases, including all potential threats, all ideologies, all targets, and all possible actions. Though it’s focused on domestic threats, it mentions foreign terrorist organizations just in case. Three threats are highlighted, threats to the LGBTQI+ community, threats to the Jewish community, and January 6th, which is coming up on its second anniversary.
Following the late November shooting at an LGBTQI+ bar in Colorado Springs, Colorado—which remains under investigation—we have observed actors on forums known to post racially or ethnically motivated violent extremist content praising the alleged attacker. Similarly, some domestic violent extremists in the United States praised an October 2022 shooting at a LGBTQI+ bar in Slovakia and encouraged additional violence. The attacker in Slovakia posted a manifesto online espousing white supremacist beliefs and his admiration for prior attackers, including some within the United States.
Recent incidents have highlighted the enduring threat to faith-based communities, including the Jewish community. In early November 2022, an individual in New Jersey was arrested for sharing a manifesto online that threatened attacks on synagogues. The individual admitted to writing the document, in which he claimed to be motivated by the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS) and hatred towards Jewish people.
On the subject of disinformation, the advisory also says that “DHS remains focused on recognizing disinformation that threatens the security of the American people, including disinformation by foreign states such as Russia, China, and Iran, or other adversaries, including as transnational criminal organizations and human smuggling organizations.” There is no mention of domestic disinformation in social media, which is also a priority focus in the work that is being done by the federal government. Interestingly, in its June 2022 advisory, the DHS was more explicit: “The convergence of violent extremist ideologies, false or misleading narratives, and conspiracy theories have and will continue to contribute to a heightened threat of violence in the United States.” Such a statement is now considered to be too politically charged, especially after revelations of the Disinformation Governance Board.
On the elections and threats to the election system, the advisory states that “violence surrounding the November midterm elections was isolated,” so isolated, in fact, that all previous warnings were basically wrong. In terms of threats, the 2022 elections passed no different that 2018 or 2020 and the controversies over counting seem the norm now, going back at leas to the 2000 Al Gore-George Bush season. One might think that homeland security and the FBI would take credit but then that would suppose that anything they did had much impact.
Overall in this advisory, the language is so elliptical in some places – just plain weird – as to be laughable. In one place, the report says that “an individual allegedly broke into the home of a Member of Congress and attacked their spouse with a hammer,” referring to the attack on Nancy Pelosi’s husband but never mentioning any names. Other news events are cited, such as the attack on the FBI office in Cincinnati in August 2022, but glaringly missing is any mention of its connection to the Mar-a-Lago raid that same month. And there is no mention whatsoever of Donald Trump or MAGA and any other groups that might be connected with the former president. Instead, the advisory speaks of “perceptions of government overreach,” including “perceptions that the government is overstepping its Constitutional authorities or failing to perform its duties” as the driving factors towards violence as if these are not legitimate grievances.