Every wargame to be held in 2023

A new Cold War, and so many other wars, are already planned

As the U.S.-only war game Valiant Shield 2022 drew to a close, two aicraft carriers (the Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan) and the amphibious ship USS Tripoli pose for the all important photo opportunity.

The U.S. and its military allies are planning more than 110 major war games in this coming year, from naval exercises involving over 60 nations to small clandestine special operations events that take place in the shadows. As 2023 opens and the war in Ukraine drags on, a good amount of the activity is planned for Europe, mostly NATO getting its shit together, perfecting future war against Russia (a country that will be all out of war by the time the Ukraine war is over, no matter what the outcome.)

Almost all of the other war games are focused on war with China, North Korea and Iran, in some ways the very conflicts the national security machine has been practicing since the end of the last Cold War in 1990. But Africa is also a new playground for the American military, with so many games hiding U.S. military activity on the continent. Many of these war games are also just practicing the nuts-and-bolts, like moving large amounts of metal from point A to point B.

Indeed the Cold War is back. The United States is fully transforming to what it calls “great power competition” after two decades of counter-insurgency. That means retooling itself with the skills of conventional war, relearning large scale ground combat and the integration of not only American land, air, sea, space, and cyber forces and capabilities, but also all of those domains with other countries. Common language, procedures, and cooperation. It isn’t as easy as one might imagine, coordinating all of this, as we’ve seen in the Russian Army looking large and powerful but then failing to defeat a smaller country right on its border.

Speaking of Russia, it and China have their own war games, though on a puny scale in comparison. The Kremlin even announced in December that it planned to hold nine international exercises in 2023, including the pipe dream “Indestructible Brotherhood.” Moscow says the other war games are “focused on peacekeeping and combating terrorism.” Yep, it’s all defensive. China, of course, constantly practices for the invasion of Taiwan — think not only executing such a D-day but also learning the lessons of Ukraine. Herein lurks the league of bad countries allied with the two: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Then there are the two nuclear powers playing both sides: India and Pakistan.

Even in the long time, is China preparing for World War against the United States? At this point it doesn’t really matter which came first, the chicken or the egg: China is the Pentagon’s designated enemy of the future, the U.S. preparing to thwart Beijing in its “ambitions”, China bristling about the pressure and incursions into its domain, the U.S. responding with alliances and war games and actual operations, the Chinese pushing back, the U.S. persisting, tensions, incidents, flashpoints and on and on until someone loses an eye.

Meanwhile, North Korea does its crazy thing, while Iran (now an increasingly open partner with Russia) defends itself as it sees it by militarily engaging on its periphery (or alternatively military engages on its periphery in the Shi’a crescent from Iran to Lebanon and then has to defend itself as Washington organizes its friends to thwart Iranian influence and fight Tehran.) In the logic of national security, it’s all necessary. In the sad world we live in, there is also the reality of singular preparation for the inevitable, one that is inexorable, because, well, there are no peace games. Yes, Russia invaded Ukraine and China threatens Taiwan, but at this point, the machine grinds forward, always towards war.

For the first time ever, I’ve compiled a calendar of these war games before they actually happen. It wasn’t easy to compile, and as you’ll see at the end, I know that certain war games will take place in 2023 but just don’t know when. Every war game has some clever codename, generally two words — one some martial-sounding exclamation (Guardian, Falcon, Warrior, Shield) with a "first word” that generally identifies what regional or functional command the war game is associated with. Some of the codenames are one word, felicitous declarations: Vigilant, Together, Forever, Joint, Combined. Here they are month by month:

Large scale U.S. led exercises, under the Joint Exercise Taining Program, broken down by combatant command. These are mostly multilateral exercises and does not account for all. Many other war games are bilateral or even secret. The first year runs from 1 October to 30 September. Compiled by William M. Arkin (January 2023)

January

• African Lion 23-1 (AFRICOM command post exercise (CPX))

• Joint Arctic Training 23 (Netherlands/NATO)

• Justified Accord 23 (AFRICOM/East Africa)

• MLAT (SOCOM) (75th Ranger Regiment)

• Red Flag 23-1 (Nellis AFB, NV)

• Scarlet Dragon Oasis 23 (CENTCOM)

• WEPTAC 2023 (Nellis AFB, NV)

February

• Allied Spirit 23 (EUCOM) (Germany, Lithuania)

• Cobra Gold 23 (INDOPACOM)

• Cutlass Express 23 (AFRICOM) (East Africa)

• Dharma Guardian 23 (India/Japan)

• Dynamic Guard 23 (NATO)

• Dynamic Manta 23 (NATO)

• Flintlock 23 (AFRICOM/SOCAFRICA)

• Hemex-Orion Amphibious 2023 (NATO)

• Integrated Response 23 (SOUTHCOM)

• Invicible Sentry 23 (CENTCOM)

• Juniper Falcon 23 (CENTCOM/Israel)

• ORION 23 (France)

• Silver Falcon 23 (EUCOM)

March

• African Lion 23-2 (AFRICOM CPX)

• CENTAM Guardian 23 Phase 1 (SOUTHCOM)

• Crystal Arrow 23 (Latvia/NATO)

• Freedom Shield 23-1 (INDOPACOM)

• Joint Project Optic Windmill 23 (NATO)

• Joint Viking 23 (Norway/NATO)

• Joint Warrior 23-1 (UK/NATO)

• Obangame Express 2023 (AFRICOM)

• Patriot 23 (National Guard)

• Red Flag 23-2 (Nellis AFB, NV)

• Salaknib 23 (Philippines)

• Sea Shield 23 (NATO) (Black Sea)

• Silent Quest 23-2 (Army special operations) (Ft. Bragg, NC)

• Slovak Shield 23 (Slovakia/NATO)

• Ultimate Caduceus 23 (TRANSCOM)

April

• Aurora 23 (Sweden)

• Austere Challenge 23 (EUCOM)

• Balikatan 23 (INDOPACOM)

• Brown Flag 23 (Army Special Operations Command)

• Brave Beduin 23 (Denmark/NATO)

• Combined Resolve 23 (USAREUR/Germany)

• Dynamic Mongoose 23 (NATO)

• Fused Response 23 (SOUTHCOM)

• Global Lightning 23 (STRATCOM)

• Hemex Orion (France/NATO)

• JLOTS 23-1 CPX (TRANSCOM)

• Large Scale Global Exercise 23 (INDOPACOM)

• Mare Aperto 23-1 (Italy/NATO)

• MLAT (SOCOM) (75th Ranger Regiment)

• Noble Jump II 23 (NATO)

• Southern Strike 23 (National Guard)

• Swift Response 23 (EUCOM)

• Taro Warrior 23 (Army Reserves)

• Vibrant Response 23 (NORTHCOM)

• Vigilant Shield 23-2 (NORTHCOM)

• Vital Archer 23 (NORTHCOM/SOCNORTH) (I wrote about this before)

May

• Anakonda 23 (Poland)

• Arctic Edge 23 (NORTHCOM)

• Ardent Sentry 23 (NORTHCOM)

• Arrow 23 (Finland)

• Astral Knight 23 (EUCOM)

• Aurora 23 (Sweden/NATO)

• CENTAM Guardian 23 Phase II (SOUTHCOM)

• Defender Europe 23 (EUCOM)

• Eagle Resolve 23 (Saudi Arabia/CENTCOM)

• Formidible Shield 23 (EUCOM)

• Immediate Response 23 (EUCOM)

• Lightning Strike 23 (Finland)

• MECODEX 2023 (Ecuador/SOUTHCOM)

• Navy Large Scale Exercise (LSE) 2023

• Northern Edge 23-1 (INDOPACOM) (Alaska)

• NUWAIX 23 (NORTHCOM)

• Saber Guardian 23 (EUCOM/Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania)

• Steadfast Cobalt 23 (EUCOM/NATO)

• Tempest Express 23 (INDOPACOM)

• Tenacious Resolution 23-1 (INDOPACOM)

• Turbo Activation 23-1 (TRANSCOM)

June

• African Lion 23-3 (AFRICOM) (Morocco, Tunisia, Senegal, Ghana)

• Air Defender 2023 (NATO)

• Anatolian Eagle 23 (NATO/Turkey)

• Aproc 23 (Spain)

• Arctic Challenge 23 (NATO/Finland/Sweden)

• Baltops 23 (EUCOM)

• Bersama Warrior 23 (INDOPACOM)

• Coalition Interoperability Exercise 23 (EUCOM)

• Cyber Flag 23 (CYBERCOM)

• Diamond Dragon 23 (EUCOM)

• Flotex 23 (Spain)

• Fuerzas Comando 23 (SOUTHCOM)

• Jackal Stone 23 (EUCOM)

• Northern Forest 23 (Finland)

• Pacific Sentry 23 (INDOPACOM)

• Phoenix Express 23 (AFRICOM)

• Ramstein Dust 23 (EUCOM)

• Ramstein Guard 23 (EUCOM)

• Red Flag Alaska 23-2 (Alaska)

• Regional Cooperation 23 (CENTCOM)

• Resolute Sentinel 23 (SOUTHCOM)

• Royal Blackhawk 23 (France)

• Silent Quest 23 (Army special operations) (Ft. Bragg, NC)

• Sirio 23 (Spain)

• Turbo Challenge 23-2 (TRANSCOM)

• Vigilant Guard 23-1/23-3 (NORTHCOM)

• Vigilant Shield 23-3 (NORTHCOM)

July

• Agile Rage 23 (National Guard)

• Bronze Ram 23 (SOCOM/JSOC)

• JLOTS 23-2 FTX (TRANSCOM)

• Sea Breeze 23 (EUCOM)

• PANAMAX Alpha 23 (SOUTHCOM)

• Red Flag 23-3 (Nellis AFB, NV)

• Talisman Sabre 23 (INDOPACOM)

• Tenacious Archer 23 (INDOPACOM)

• Tenacious Resolution 23-2 (INDOPACOM)

• Tradewinds 23 (SOUTHCOM)

• Turbo Activation 23-1 (TRANSCOM)

• UNITAS 23 (SOUTHCOM)

August

• Agile Spirit 23 (USAEUR)

• Bright Star 23 (CENTCOM/Egypt)

• MLAT (SOCOM) (75th Ranger Regiment)

• Multinational Peacekeeping Op Exericse 23 (INDOPACOM)

• Northern Lightning 23 (National Guard)

• Northern Strike 23 (National Guard)

• Red Flag Alaska 23-3 (Alaska)

• Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) 23-2 (INDOPACOM) (South Korea)

• Ultimate Guardian 23 (TRANSCOM)

• Vigilant Guard 23-4 (NORTHCOM)

September

• Adamant Serpent 23-2 (EUCOM)

• Dynamic Front 23 (EUCOM)

• Eager Lion 23 (CENTCOM/SOCCENT) (Jordan)

• Epic Guardian 23 (AFRICOM)

• Garuda Shield 23 (INDOPACOM) (Indonesia)

• Northern Challenge 23 (EUCOM)

• Tempest Wind 23 (INDOPACOM)

October

• Axalp 23 (Switzerland)

• Eagle Horizon 23 (NORTHCOM) (Continuity of Government)

• Frisian Flag 23 (Netherlands)

• Globally Integrated Exercise 23

• Judicious Warrior 24

• Ocean Sky 23 (Spain)

• Ruska (Finland)

• Steadfast Jupiter 2023 (NATO) (Germany)

• Steadfast Noon 23 (NATO nuclear)

• Tigermeet 23 (Italy)

November

• Freezing Winds 23 (Finland)

• Global Thunder 24 (STRATCOM/TRANSCOM)

As this slide from a Joint Staff briefing from December 2022 attests, there are other high-level command post and tabletop exercises (e.g., Internal Look, Pinnacle) that truly game out wars with the big four — China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

There are other wargames planned, for which I don’t have a date: African Partner 23 (AFRICOM), Amalgam Eagle 23 (NORAD), CARAT Bangladesh, CARAT Brunei, CARAT Indonesia, CARAT Singapore, CARAT Sri Lanka, CARAT Thailand/Guardian Sea, CARAT Timor Leste, CARTWHEEL (Army Pacific), Cyber Lightning 23, Cyber Shield 23, Edge 23, Equateur/Croix Du Sud (France), Falcon Virgo 23 (NORAD), Golden Coyote 23 (South Dakota), Jaded Nite 23 (SOCOM), Jaded Thunder 23 (SOCOM), Large Scale Global Exercise 23 (JCS), Mobility Guardian 23 (Air Mobility Command), Nimble Titan 23, Nite Shadow 23, Noble Partner 23 (USAREUR/Georgia), Orion 23 (France), Orient Shield 23 (Japan), Patriot Fury 23, Resolute Castle 23 (USAREUR), Saber Junction 23 (AFRICOM), Saber Strike 23 (USAREUR/Baltics), Southern Vanguard 24 (Fall 2023), Space Challenge 23, Space Lightning 23, Space Thunder 23, Tamiok Strike 23 (Papua New Guinea), TOXIC TRIP 2023 (TOTP23) (NATO), Valiant Shield 23, Vibrant Response 23 (NORTHCOM), WFX 22-4.