Russia after Ukraine: What the US Army wants to know
The first week of the Ukraine war had barely ended before Washington and NATO leaders were already calling for increases in defense spending, for more bases in Eastern Europe, and more troops on the continent. The pundits were unanimous (and so were the generals): Russia was winning and would win in days if not weeks, Moscow was reckless and dangerous, and the threat to Europe was greater than ever before.
Now, coming up to nearly a year of conflict, Russia is losing. The Russian military has proven to be a paper tiger, with neither its soldiers nor its technology (or its vaunted numerical superiority) able to defeat Ukraine. With Putin the country is finished; without him, it’s anyone’s guess which way a defeated Russia will evolve. And yet, the assumptions about the future haven’t changed, despite the pounding – 100,000 deaths and injuries, thousands of pieces of destroyed equipment, a diminished stockpile of everything, a decimated economy.
Though NATO is more unified than ever, and the defense industry is no doubt salivating at the coming infusion, what are the actual lessons to be learned? The Army has just published its “2022 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment” that lays out some of the research questions that it would like to study. All of the questions assume that Russia will bounce back, and none even ask whether this proposition is true.
General research questions:
Ukraine is largest use of force in Europe since World War 2 and offers significant insight into Russian capability. Russia ran into difficulties and initially operated in a manner different than their doctrine would suggest, and then transitioned to deliberate combined arms maneuver. How do we ensure that Army draws the right lessons from this conflict? Assess Russian operations in Ukraine and identify takeaways to inform future Army planning and posture as well as things that should not be taken as lessons.
The war in Ukraine and movement of Russian forces into Belarus on an apparently permanent basis challenge many of the assumptions on which current Army force posture in Europe has been based. Propose and assess enduring posture options for Europe based on recent information available from the war in Ukraine balanced against deep historical analysis.
Analyze lessons from the war in Ukraine to inform planning to defeat future Russian aggression. Specifically consider within your research the use of urban defense, dispersed strike groups equipped with advanced capabilities, and information operations.
How do emerging technologies (AI, autonomous combat vehicles, long-range precision weapons) affect existing theories of warfare?
Future conflict may center on space, cyberspace, and special operations forces. How would this function? What changes are needed for U.S. and allied security organizations to shift to this context?
The influence of leadership on combat effectiveness in the Russian and Ukrainian militaries during the current conflict there, with a particular emphasis on how losses of senior leaders affect combat performance.
Attributes of Russia to be understand “the Russian way of war, decision making, and critical vulnerabilities.”
Russian Views of Deterrence, Escalation Management, and Conflict Termination.
Russian Defense Industry – Domestic and Exports.
Russian Use of Private Military Companies After the War in Ukraine.
Domestic Stability Impacts on National Security Decision Making.
Russian Security Reactions to NATO Expansion.
Systemic Weaknesses at the State level.
Critical Vulnerabilities to Military Operations and Systems.
Military Modernization and Reconstitution.
Russian Military as a Learning Organization.
Russian Military Training, Readiness, and Morale.
Russian Cyber and Influence Activities.
Advanced Conventional and Nuclear Weapon Employment.
Russian Concepts of Future Warfare and Future Force Design.
Senior Military Leader Decision Making and Command and Control.
Proficiency and Interoperability in Combined Warfare.
Doctrine/Military Thought Related to Use of Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons.
Deployment of Reconnaissance Strike Complex and Supporting C4ISR Architecture.
Russia-China Security Cooperation.
Russia-China Military Alignment.
Russia-China Defense-Industry.
Russian Strategy in the Arctic Post-NATO Expansion.
Russian Global Engagement After the War in Ukraine